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Forecasting High-Frequency Volatility Shocks An Analytical Real-Time Monitoring System von Kömm, Holger (eBook)

  • Erscheinungsdatum: 11.03.2016
  • Verlag: Springer Gabler
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Forecasting High-Frequency Volatility Shocks

This thesis presents a new strategy that unites qualitative and quantitative mass data in form of text news and tick-by-tick asset prices to forecast the risk of upcoming volatility shocks. Holger Kömm embeds the proposed strategy in a monitoring system, using first, a sequence of competing estimators to compute the unobservable volatility; second, a new two-state Markov switching mixture model for autoregressive and zero-inflated time-series to identify structural breaks in a latent data generation process and third, a selection of competing pattern recognition algorithms to classify the potential information embedded in unexpected, but public observable text data in shock and nonshock information. The monitor is trained, tested, and evaluated on a two year survey on the prime standard assets listed in the indices DAX, MDAX, SDAX and TecDAX. Dr. Holger Kömm is research associate at the chair of statistics and quantitative methods in the economics & business department of the Catholic University Eichstätt-Ingolstadt.


    Format: PDF
    Kopierschutz: AdobeDRM
    Seitenzahl: 188
    Erscheinungsdatum: 11.03.2016
    Sprache: Englisch
    ISBN: 9783658125967
    Verlag: Springer Gabler
    Größe: 2126 kBytes
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